We are beginning a new year. That’s actually a fairly arbitrary distinction, of course, but with the holiday hoopla behind us, we do tend to refocus on the rest of life. The new year always brings questions about what’s up ahead.
Aside from the givens – we’ll have some more cold weather, the gym will be crowded until mid-February when the resolution people give up their resolutions, the Super Bowl with happen on February 9, and we will spring forward again on March 9 – it’s hard to say.
We look at the past, we look at developing trends, and we make our best guess. As I’ve said – with regret – so many times before, a real estate license does not come with a crystal ball. Not even as an optional extra.
So, what does it look like from here? A few thoughts. A few caveats. Some counsel.
Stats Local inventory is still tight. The local economy is strong, and our population is still growing, placing upward pressure on prices.
Days on the market are creeping up – nationally as well as locally. But that may change in the spring if a lot of buyers come out of hibernation.
Interest rates have been drifting between 6% and 7% and will likely continue in that range – maybe drifting into the low-6% range, but not below 6% as we had hoped. So, will all those buyers come into the market?
Modest price appreciation (average prediction is 2.9% nationally) helps affordability, that but may also inhibit sellers who are wanting to cash out at a profit.
The Outlook Pretty murky! It looks like we might be moving (very) slowly toward a more balanced market. If not totally neutral, less tilted toward sellers than in past years. But as above, there’s a lot of push and pull – factors moving in opposite directions.
A Caveat We have a new presidential administration, and if the past is a preview, we are in for a wild ride. If Trump 2 is as predictably chaotic and unpredictable as Trump 1, all bets are off.
A Word of Counsel Is this a good time to buy or sell? My answer is, as always, yes! Trying to game out the market – waiting for things to move in your direction – almost never works out. It might happen by chance, but rarely by design. A lot of this is just plain dumb luck.
So … if you need and/or want to buy a house, if you need and/or want to sell a house, now is always the right time. Know – with great clarity – your objectives, get the best realtor you can find (I can give you a suggestion on that), make a plan, and go for it.