Bonkers, yes. Stupid, no.

Everybody’s talking about it. The real estate market has lost its mind. 
 
Well, maybe.
 
True facts: Inventory remains tight, demand remains high, and buyers are bidding up the price of houses. Multiple-offer bidding wars break out with alarming frequency. Week-before-last I got a bound offer at $51,000 over asking price, with an escalation clause on top of that, and no appraisal contingency … in nine hours! 
 
Not-so-true facts: We are in a hot air balloon, drifting farther and farther from earth, we are going to crash, and we are all going to die.
 
This market feels unprecedented – not to mention a little bit scary. And perhaps it is. But reality eventually imposes limits.

While bidding wars seem the norm these days, and sellers are on high alert for that (mythical) buyer from California or New York who will throw big bags of money at anything, overpriced houses DO NOT SELL. 

Count on this!

Because things are so wild right now, we might need to define “overpriced” before going further. In my world, things are worth exactly what people will pay for them – no more, no less. What a buyer is willing to pay for a house today is what it is worth – to that buyer on that day. So what do we mean by “overpriced?” 

Overpriced houses are the ones that don’t sell. 

Do those even exist these days? You bet they do! This past fall I had an overpriced listing (seller’s choice on the asking price) and we had 77 showings in three weeks without a single offer. The seller agreed to drop the price to where it should have been all along, and we had two offers within 24 hours, both above the new asking price.

When a seller asks the market for a certain price, the market responds. Sometimes it responds with a bidding war. Sometimes with total silence. 

So, how do we apply this to buying and selling? And maintaining one’s sanity?  

For sellers: Don’t get greedy. Look at the comps, ask a good price, and accept the results. And be aware that the highest offer may not be the best offer. If it’s too high to appraise, everybody – including you – will likely get cranky in a big hurry!

For buyers: KNOW YOUR LIMITS! Focused searching, fast action, and aggressive offers are the name of the game, but know when to stop. Don’t let the excitement of the auction atmosphere lead you to an offer that will give you a hangover in the morning.

And – I believe I’ve said this before – let your realtor guide you to the best deal.

Lessons from the Lockdown

Compared to how terrible the pandemic has been for so many, I’ve been lucky. I’ve avoided getting sick, and I have a great job that keeps me busy, well-fed, and out of the house.

It hasn’t exactly been a picnic. Beyond an occasional elbow-bump, I haven’t touched another human being since last March. I miss seeing my friends and family, and I actively detest and dread Zoom meetings.

On balance, though, I’ve gotten along pretty well.

Then came the recent ice/snow/snow storm. As I write this, my car is stuck in the garage for the fourth day because I can’t get up the drive to the street. Suddenly, at this late date, I have a window into the world of Covid lockdown – something I knew about, but didn’t really know.

Here I sit, with nowhere to go and no way to get there, and I totally get why people have been focused on their homes. There’s nothing else to look at! Sales of household goods, furniture, window treatments, and home improvement supplies are booming.

According to numerous news reports, post pandemic, many folks will never return to the office as before. Even fully employed, many of us will be “stuck” at home on a permanent basis.

What does this mean for the concept of “home” now and post-pandemic?

It’s time to get it right. If you’re going to be there all day, every day, now’s the time to make it what you want it to be.

Need an office? I happen to have a great purpose-built office in my 1962 ranch – a rare thing in a ranch, and very welcome. But not typical. If you don’t have a spare bedroom to use, maybe it’s time to add one. Or upsize.

Need to stash the kids while you squeeze in one more late-afternoon Zoom meeting? Maybe it’s time to finish that basement. Or maybe it’s time to buy one.

Sick of looking at your existing ______ (fill in the blank here: kitchen, bathroom, picture window, deck that needs re-staining, cracked driveway …) Maybe it’s time to do some upgrades. Maybe it’s time to start over.

Do you just need more elbow room? Does the house feel cramped these days with everybodyat home all the time.Maybe it’s time to add a room or a whole wing. Or, maybe it’s time to upsize.

As usual in life, there’s good news and bad news.

Good: Interest rates are still low. You can buy more house. Bad: Inventory is tight. It's tough to get the right house. Good: Inventory is tight. Your house will sell if you want to buy another one. Good: If you upgrade or add-on, you can avoid all the buy/sell hassle. Bad: If you upgrade or add-on, you’ll go though remodeling hassle (often quite severe!) assuming you can find someone to do the work (good luck with that!).

Good: A smart realtor can help you sort out these conflicting factors and decide on the right path – even if it’s an upgrade rather than a sale.

No time like the present

Life is short. 
 
As the years roll by, this becomes more apparent to me every day. Where did all the time go? And how did it all happen so fast?
 
As we pull slowly out of the pandemic and begin to recover, I see evidence of life’s brevity all around me. In December, a cousin died of Covid – just one of 420,000 and counting. Last week, I got news of the unexpected, premature death of a former client. As I write this, I know three people of varying ages who are battling cancer – with mixed expectations. 
 
Why all this gloom? Especially in an email about real estate, not to mention cocktails!
 
Because, “now” is the only thing we have. The past is gone and the future, aside from being impossible to predict, isn’t here yet. That, like so much in life, has implications for how we look at residential real estate. 
 
If you’re wondering about the “best” time to bust a real estate move, I have an answer: the time is now.

Last March, at the onset of the pandemic, three buyers I was working with were certain everything would be much cheaper in the summer. As it turned out prices continued to rise. One got back into the market and bought in the summer – at considerably more than originally anticipated. Another is back in the market, but hasn’t found anything yet. And the third disappeared. Haven’t heard a peep since March.
 
Waiting to make your move based on predicting the future? It’s a crap shoot at best. 
 
As for the past, well, regrets are a gigantic waste of time.
 
Did you miss a great deal? Suck it up and move ahead. There’s another deal out there. Did you overprice your house and wait six weeks – or six months – for a buyer? Drop the price, get the sale, and smile as you count your proceeds. Regrets over the past only make the present less pleasant.
 
Some things about NOW

Money is cheap. It may be more expensive later. It may not. But right now, it’s cheap, and cheap money means buying power.

Inventory is tight. Things may loosen up in the future. But they may not. If you need a house, start looking now. It could take a while to get a deal.

Buyers are plentiful and clamoring for property. Thinking about waiting until the spring to list your house because there will be more buyers looking? In this market that concept is completely defunct. Do you want to sell? Do it now.

The big point is this: in residential real estate, where investment value is really secondary to the value of having a roof over your head, the present is always the best time to act. If you are ready, willing, and able to buy a house, buy one. If you’ve stumbled a time or two (and who hasn’t?) drop it and move on.

A new year! Now what?

Unless you’ve been in a coma since March, you’re aware that, from just about any angle, 2020 has been a pretty dismal excuse for a year. And that goes double for Nashville. Following the March tornadoes and the pandemic, severe straight line winds knocked 100,000+ Nashvillians off the power grid for up to two weeks in May. To top things off, a domestic terrorist blew himself up on Christmas morning taking a good bit of historic Second Avenue with him. OMG! What next?!? Wait! Don’t answer that …

While weather and other events beyond our control do not respect man-made calendars, there is a certain relief in being able to say, “It’s no longer 2020.”

Amen!

But what about the year ahead? Amid all this gloom, one Nashville bright spot in 2020 has been residential real estate. What does the crystal ball say?

Disclaimer: I do not have a crystal ball. I have a Tennessee real estate license. But I do have some thoughts, so here goes. From all indications, our market going into the new year will be much like it has been in 2020. Which means …

Sell, sell, sell!
Do you want to sell your house? Are you sorta thinking about it? Maybe it just crossed your mind … a fleeting thought … Call me now!Given how tight inventory is, you’d be doing the world a favor. Price it right and it will sell.

Even overpriced listings get a lot of action. I had an overpriced listing this fall and had 72 showings in two weeks. Within two days of dropping the price to a more reasonable level, we had two offers at the same time and it sold for over asking.

January 2021 is a great time to sell.

But, where do I go … ?
Well, that can be a tough one. If you’re not leaving town, or moving to assisted living, or planning to live in your grown kids’ basement when your house sells – which it will – chances are you’ll need to buy another place.

Challenging! (see above)

If you need a mortgage, there’s good news. Interest rates are at historic lows and it looks like this will continue well into 2021. With a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at less than 2.5%, (and a 15-year fixed is even cheaper) your buying power is at an all-time high. It will take determination and patience – I can help you with both of those – but the deals do get done.

You’ve got to bring your A game, but January 2021 is also a great time to buy.

Still grateful after all these years …

Last Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, I began my seventh decade on this planet, and coincidentally, my seventh year in the real estate business.

Wow! What to make of this?

One thing is sure, and gets more so the longer I live – there is always something to be grateful for.

It would be easy to look back at the past 12 months – the past nine in particular – and believe the world is coming apart at the seams. Tornado, pandemic, protests for racial equality, more pandemic, economic distress, isolation, and loneliness all around us. It seems like nothing but bad news since the middle of March.

And yet, I remain grateful. Here’s my 2020 list.

Family and friends
How sweet it is! I’ve got kids, sisters, cousins, and a host of great friends who love me. And I love them back. We support each other, feed each other, have a lot of drinks, have a lot of laughs. Now and then, we shed tears. Their presence means everything.

My job
I can’t say it often enough – real estate is the best job I have ever had. I get to work with all kinds of interesting clients, and all kinds of interesting houses, in all kinds of interesting neighborhoods, among all kinds of smart, hard-working realtors – both at Village and beyond. And I get paid to do this. Bliss!

A crazy-hot market
Despite the avalanche of bad news world-wide, Nashville’s residential real estate market continues to boom. Low interest rates, tight inventory, and thousands of newcomers make our market challenging and sometimes downright wild. But with determination and patience, the deals get done and buyers and sellers get what they need. Plus, there’s never a dull moment!

New political leadership
If any one good thing has come to us this year, it’s a change at the top. Regardless of political policy, it’s my hope that we will move out of a period of childish, hostile, divisive behavior and into a period of respectful discourse, inclusiveness, and common cause. No more adolescent name-calling and backbiting. No more racist dog-whistles, misogynistic “locker room talk”, homophobia, and immigrant bashing. No more working to divide Americans into “us” and “them.” We are all in this together, and I’m grateful for new leaders who will honor that principle and work to rebuild bridges.

You
And of course, I’m always grateful to everyone who takes the time to read these messages, try the cocktails, and send me comments.

That’s a lot to be grateful for!