So, what happens next … ?

Questions. 
 
I get lots of them. Most realtors do – even in “normal” times, and these times are certainly not normal. 
 
Lately, most people are asking me what’s going on in the market now, and what’s going to happen. Hard questions to answer – even the one about what’s going on right now. And, since we predict the future by looking at the past, and nothing like this has happened in over a century, getting a clue about the future is especially tough.
 
But we can try. 

What’s happening now?
Real estate is happening. After falling off the cliff in mid-March, things are moving again. My case is fairly typical. In March, I lost four deals worth nearly $3 million, and two other clients put everything on hold. 
 
By April 20, I had three deals under contract. So, batting 500. Not terrible. And this seems to be happening for others as well. Things are especially active under $500,000 and multiple-offer shoot-outs are still happening.  

So, yeah, real estate goes on.
 
What’s next?
Nobody knows, of course, but I’ll stick my neck out …
 
National real estate experts and others tell us business is coming back gradually and will continue to do so. Unlike the collapse in 2008, driven in part by oversupply and under-qualified buyers in residential real estate, we have short supply and high demand from well-qualified buyers. Some predict a gangbusters comeback in the fall.
 
I’ve been asked whether things will be cheaper later in the year. I doubt it. While demand has softened – especially in higher price ranges – buyers expecting to pick up bargains like seashells on the beach will be disappointed.  
 
So, is this a good time to buy? Or sell?
One word answer: Yes. 
 
Money is historically cheap these days. Buyers can qualify for more and better than they could at higher interest rates. And if you want to sell, there’s likely someone out there who can afford your house.
 
But more than this, there’s the issue of intent. When many people are afraid to go into a strange house, or have strangers come into theirs, it’s a given that anyone showing is pretty serious about selling. And anyone out looking is serious about buying. That cuts out the lookie-loos and tire kickers. And it cuts out sellers who overprice hoping to land a sucker.
 
I little clarity. Not a bad thing.

Lost and Found

It’s been a wild couple of weeks here in Nashville. 
 
With covid-19 causing illness, death and extreme disruption of routine life, it’s been rough all over the world, but on top of that, we were hit with a fierce tornado just before the pandemic took hold of us.
 
It’s easy to feel that everything’s ruined, especially if you’ve lost something or someone specific and precious. But it also reminds me of a song from the soundtrack of my teen years, Joni Mitchell’s Both Sides Now (Judy Collins’ rendition in particular). 
 
The song is about looking at life from both sides, win and lose. The third stanza includes this line: something’s lost, yet something’s gained in living every day. Truer words were never spoken.
 
So what have we lost? What have we gained?

We lost a lot in the tornado. Irreplaceable historic buildings, ranches in Donelson, apartment homes, favorite haunts and hang-outs, family photos, heirlooms, entire streetscapes. And in some cases, we lost jobs, friends, and loved ones. 
 
On the heels of this debacle came the pandemic, and the losses just keep piling up. More jobs lost. Coming soon, there will be friends and loved ones lost. And on top of this, our entire world has been put on hold, and we don’t know when, or if, we will be able to unfreeze the frame. Or what the world will look like when things start moving again. Scary!

So what have we gained?
 
Here’s my bet, or at least my hope: we will regain a sense of our common humanity. 
 
In a time when we seem to be sinking ever deeper into our cloud-connected devices and detaching from the people next to us, the outpouring of generosity and volunteer labor that began before sunrise after the tornado was inspiring. Our need to connect with each other is, as it turns out, nearly irresistible.
 
Now that we are hunkered down, keeping our physical distance to avoid harm to ourselves and others, the need for human connection gets more acute. It’s only been a week and I’ve never had such a hankering for a simple thing like a trip to Target. Or an hour hanging out at Village, gabbing and getting a little work done. I miss people. I know, I know – I’m not cooped up in my house trying to home-school my kids. But even these beleaguered parents are missing connection with the wider world.
 
When the clouds pass, I hope that we will have regained some of our sense of community and common purpose. Gained a bit more appreciation for the pleasures of our commonplace routines. Gained a little gratitude for simply having survived.

Presence, Persistence, Patience – the three Ps of Real Estate

Anything will sell if it is properly priced. This concept was taught to me by the fabulous Bobbie Noreen, the broker who taught me almost everything I know about the real estate business. Truer words were never spoken – and these days they are coming home to roost with every buyer out there. The Nashville market has lost its mind again. Everything sells, seemingly in a matter of hours, not days.
 
Last year, I worked with 14 buyer clients, and I’m working six more right now. There has been some rough sledding trying to get to a deal on the right house for what looks like a reasonable price – and it seems to be getting rougher. Fast action, strong offers, and sharp elbows are required.
 
So, lately I’ve been thinking about the Three Ps. Presence, Persistence, and Patience – as essential for success in real estate as they are in the rest of life. And these days, perhaps especially essential for buying Nashville real estate.

Presence
You have to show up. These deals aren’t going to land themselves. Both realtor and client have to be in the hunt. My inbox loads up every morning at 5:00 with new MLS listings based on what my clients are looking for. And my clients are sending me listings as well. We are present and in it together – always looking, ready to bust a move. In this market, snooze and you lose.
 
Persistence
You can’t give up. As daunting as it may be to lose out four times in as many months amid multiple-offer pile-ups (this happened to clients last year) you have to keep going. Sometimes pulling back for a breather is in order (I have clients doing this now, lest they get brain damage) but eventually you have to get back into it. And stick with it until you get what you want.
 
Patience
And of course, doing one’s best not to get crazy while all this is going on is also a required effort – as true for me as for my clients. Impatience not only brings negative energy to the process, it can also lead to the pursuit of a bad deal just to get it over with. Not wise. Keep calm and carry on.
 
The good news is that with the dedicated application of the Three Ps, success will almost always come. It can be a long road, but you will get there.

Happy 2020. What’s going to happen next?

We’ve got a whole new year on our hands. And in the first weeks of a new year, I’m usually reminded of the old French maxim, plus ça change plus c'est la meme chose. 

It applies to real estate – as it does to the rest of life – in several ways. We are always anxious to know what’s coming down the pike, we always make predictions, and we are always at least partially wrong. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
 
In the spirit of public service (we realtors live to serve) I’ll throw out a few thoughts and maybe 12 months from now we’ll look back and see how well I did.

Good News on interest rates
Current rates on a 30-year fixed are under 4% and, while they will float up and down a bit, all predictions are that they will stay there. Good news for buyers because their money goes farther. Good news for sellers, too, because more buyers are in the market. 

Mixed news on inventory
Nationally new housing starts are up significantly from where they were a year ago. Good news for easing price increases because increased supply usually lowers upward pressure on prices. But Nashville is still growing very rapidly and everybody needs a place to live, so I don’t see a slow down here any time soon. Working with buyers this month, I’m already encountering multiple-offer-madness that I expected to see in the spring.

Mixed news on prices
See above. Prices will continue to rise here, and probably more quickly than state and regional average increases, which seem to be slowing. Good news for sellers. Not so good for buyers – even with those attractive interest rates.
 
Bad News on traffic
Sad to say this, but despite the anticipated completion of the I-440 renovation in August, it ain’t getting better any time soon, folks. It’s likely to get worse. But you already knew this, right? Best to take my approach. Relax and leave earlier. And when everything grinds to a halt ahead of you, breathe deeply and count your blessings. One of which is that we live in Nashville, a lively growing community with a lot of good things to offer. And that would include a good many excellent realtors. 
 
In case you wondered, I’m an excellent realtor. 

Gifts of the Season

It’s the holiday season again. When it seems like maybe everyone has gone crazy – decorating, buying, buying some more, wrapping, toasting, going to parties, going into debt, gaining weight, getting snarled up in mall traffic …
 
I also try to make it a time to slow down and think things through. Look back, look ahead, and be grateful for all that I have. Life’s not perfect – ever. But when I look with an open mind, there is always more to be grateful for than it seems when I’m standing in a long checkout line at Target.
 
This season – indeed all of life – is full of gifts. Here are just a few I’ve been thinking about lately …

Residential Real Estate
Wow! What a great business! What a great job! I get to run around all over this hopping town, looking at houses and condos, working with interesting people – clients, other realtors, developers, designers – helping clients get what they want, where and when they want it. Best job I’ve ever had. What a gift!
 
Boom Town
This town is on fire! What an exciting time to live and work in Nashville! I’ve lived here 43 years, and in that time – especially the last 10 years – I’ve watched Nashville grow from a sleepy, provincial town into a vibrant forward-looking city.  I know – we are all tired of the scooters and pedal taverns. And the tall-skinnies are far too numerous. But does anyone seriously want to go back to our past? Today’s Nashville is a gift.
 
Low Interest Rates
Historically low rates make buying easier for everyone at every budget level. They make my job easier, and my clients – both buyers and sellers – happier because at these rates, deals happen that wouldn’t happen otherwise. Everybody wins. Love these rates! A gift from the marketplace.
 
Robert G.
Robert G. is my Contributor salesman. I wrote about him in my June newsletter this year. I see him most mornings at the Church Street/I-65 exit ramp, and he continues to boost my life with his cheerfulness, positive attitude, gratitude for what he has, and sly humor. He reminds me to be grateful. He is a gift.
 
Everyone Else
Family, friends, clients, fellow realtors, people who read this email. I am surrounded by some of the best people this earth has to offer. Each one is a gift, and I am grateful for all.